Silver Prices May Rise 20% In One Year Amid Supply Deficit: Report

Last Updated:October 10, 2025, 17:28 IST

The Emkay Wealth Management report attributes this bullish forecast for silver to a growing industrial demand and a persistent supply deficit of nearly 20%.

Silver may see an upside of around 20% over the next one year, with prices expected to reach $60 per ounce, according to the latest outlook by Emkay Wealth Management, the wealth and advisory arm of Emkay Global Financial Services. The report attributes this bullish forecast to a growing industrial demand and a persistent supply deficit of nearly 20%, which is likely to continue in the foreseeable future.

In the international market, silver prices have surged past the $50 mark for the first time on October 9, driven by robust demand. In the spot market in India, domestic prices touched Rs 1.63 lakh per kg, sparking renewed investor interest in the white metal.

“The price of silver is expected to touch $60 per ounce in the next one year, a potential of 20% YoY from the current price level owing to growing industrial demand. The current supply deficit to demand is currently recorded at 20%, and is expected to be in deficit for the foreseeable future,” according to the Emkay Wealth Management report.

According to the report, gold returns have matched equities and outperformed bonds since the end of the gold standard. As of October 8, 2025, gold has delivered returns of 61.82% year-to-date, compared with 4.2% for Indian equities (Nifty 500 TRI) and 8.4% for bonds (Crisil Short Term Bond Index). Precious metal prices, the report noted, remain closely linked to movements in the US dollar. Expected rate cuts in the US could weaken the dollar, further supporting gold and silver prices.

“Increased preference for gold as against the US Dollar by institutional investors and central banks is at the heart of appreciation in precious metals,” said Ashish Ranawade, Head of Products, Emkay Wealth Management. “Demand-supply dynamics are favourable to bring upward mobility in silver prices and technically near a break-out zone for all-time prices.”

On the equities front, Emkay noted that Indian markets remain expensive relative to growth, with the Nifty 100 trading at a P/E of 21.8, Nifty Midcap 150 at 33.6, Nifty Smallcap 250 at 30.43, and Nifty Microcap 250 at 28.88. Despite rich valuations, domestic investors continue to pour money into equities, supported by structural tailwinds.

“Structurally, India is expected to be an outlier in the global economic landscape,” said Joseph Thomas, Head of Research, Emkay Wealth Management. “A spate of IPOs has made India a much wider market than what the indices indicate. Stock-specific opportunities remain prevalent for Indian investors. We expect PMS, AIFs, and active fund managers to do well.”

The wealth manager attributed India’s resilience to factors such as digital leadership, infrastructure push, reform momentum, China+1 strategy, and balanced geopolitical partnerships, which together strengthen the long-term growth story.

On the global front, Emkay pointed out that tariffs imposed by the US on multiple countries have disrupted supply chains across industries, particularly autos, where cross-border component flows have been hit hard. India, too, faces tariffs as high as 50% on its exports to the US, compounding trade pressures.

Meanwhile, ongoing geopolitical conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East have further polarized global trade and disrupted supply lines. Despite these challenges, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects only a moderate hit to global growth in 2025, pegging the impact at around 0.5 percentage points, citing robust domestic demand in economies like India, China, and Saudi Arabia.

For India, GDP growth is projected between 6.2% and 6.3% for 2025 and 2026, backed by strong domestic consumption. The growth outlook is supported by higher government spending, GST rationalization, and the prospect of lower interest rates globally.

India’s growth momentum, averaging 6.5-8.5% post-FY22, remains underpinned by healthy macro fundamentals. A favourable monsoon and improved water reserves are expected to lift consumption further in the festive season. The country’s Manufacturing and Services PMI touched a 15-17-year high in August 2025, signalling sustained expansion and resilience in the economy.

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